Well, after several weeks I am not doing very well. 6-9 last week bringing me to 15-20-1 for the year. Ouch. This week I have some crazy picks to hopefully right the ship. Can’t be much worse.
Favorites are in BOLD
LSU Tigers vs Florida Gators in Baton Rouge, Tiger Stadium
Spread: 13.5
Pick: Florida Gators
Call me crazy. John Brantley will not play. LSU has looked unbelievable. But look closely. Les Miles is 9-22 in his last 31 ATS and 1-13 as a double digit favorite in the SEC. Don’t forget that UF still has some pretty good athletes on both sides of the ball, even if their QB is a freshman. Charlie Weis will treat him with kid gloves and UF keeps this one close. Take the points, LSU wins 21-13.
Oklahoma Sooners vs Texas Longhorns in Dallas, Cotton Bowl
Spread: 10
Pick: Oklahoma Sooners
I missed last week with OU thinking they may be hurt and looking ahead. You may call me crazy with this one, too. Texas has looked good the last few weeks, but against the like of bad BYU, UCLA, and Iowa State. Everyone saw the close game in Tallahasee, but that is the way you win that game. Traditionally, the Red River Rivalry has not been close (decided by less than 7 points only once in the last 10 years). I think OU rolls this Texas squad. Lay the 10 points, Boomer Sooner wins 45-20.
Pitt Panthers vs Rutgers Scarlet Knights in Piscataway, High Point Solutions Stadium
Spread: 7
Pick: Rutgers Scarlet Knights
I still am not a believer in Pitt, despite the fact that they completely destroyed my bet last week. Rutgers is not a great team, but I think their defense will allow them to hang around versus Pitt. Take the points, this one is decided late by a FG. Pitt wins 21-19.
Missouri Tigers vs Kansas State Wildcats in Manhattan, Bill Snyder Stadium
Spread: 3.5
Pick: Kansas State Wildcats
I don’t understand this spread at all. Kansas State may be the most overlooked and underrated undefeated team in the country with wins at Miami and over Baylor at home. In comes a so-so Mizzou squad that has been inconsistent on offense and defense. Bill Snyder is 10-5 ATS at home as a dog since his return. Take the points, K State wins though, 31-27.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs Air Force Falcons in South Bend, Notre Dame Stadium
Spread: 15.5
Pick: Air Force Falcons
I am really sick of hearing about how good Notre Dame is, if only they didn’t turn the ball over, or make this mistake, or shoot themselves in the foot. That is called being bad in every other sport. Good teams don’t turn the ball over and make mistakes. Air Force is a disciplined team that should hang around in this one. Brian Kelly is now 2-4-3 ATS at home. Take the points, another Luck o’ the Irish victory, ND 31-24.
Arkansas Razorbacks vs Auburn Tigers in Fayetteville, Razorback Stadium
Spread: 10
Pick: Auburn Tigers
These teams are fairly evenly matched, so I was surprised when I saw the large spread. I find it hard to believe that Arkansas is a TD better than Auburn on a neutral field. SEC games between similar teams are almost always close and this one is no different. Take the points, Hogs win though 35-28.
Georgia Bulldogs vs Tennessee Volunteers in Knoxville, Neyland Stadium
Spread: 2
Pick: Tennessee Volunteers
This should be a really good, physical game. Georgia has bounced back against some subpar opponents in the last few weeks. Knoxville is not an easy place to go and get a victory, especially with a Sr. QB on the other sideline. Mark Richt is 2-7 ATS in his last 7 on the road, while UT is 7-2 ATS vs. FBS teams in its last 9. I think UT pulls the modest upset here and gets a win at home. Take the points, Rocky Top wins 24-21.
TCU Horned Frogs vs San Diego State Aztecs in San Diego, Qualcomm Stadium
Spread: 3.5
Pick: TCU Horned Frogs
The Frogs got down early again last week, but couldn’t come all the way back last week versus rival SMU. Now they go on the road to SDSU. I have gotten the pleasure of watching SDSU several times this year for some reason (i.e. gambling) and I can tell you that they are not the team they were the last few years under current Michigan coach Brady Hoke. TCU, while wildly inconsistent this year, is at least a TD better team than the Aztecs. Lay the points, love TCU and future OSU head coach Gary Patterson to bounce back again this week. TCU wins 35-21.
Michigan Wolverines vs Northwestern Wildcats in Evanston, Ryan Field
Spread: 7.5
Pick: Northwestern Wildcats
Michigan gets the first true test of that defense this week outside of Chicago this week. Dan Persa is expected to play this week. Michigan seems to struggle at NW and HC Pat Fitzgerald is 19-11 ATS in his last 30 as the underdog. Take the points, UM wins 35-34.
And my degenerate game of the week…
Troy Trojans vs UL-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns in Lafayette, Cajun Field
Spread: 6.5
Pick: UL-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns
Troy is the traditional power in this conference, but are down slightly this year. Meanwhile, ULL has been tough, with their only loss at buzzsaw Oklahoma State. I think this line has a lot to do with the past as opposed to the present. Troy squeaked out it’s last two against subpar UAB and MTSU. ULL meanwhile won at FIU (beat UCF and Louisville). I think ULL wins this one outright. Take the points, Cajuns win 42-38.